The first quarter of 2026 ends today, and the full thrust of the Spring 2026 market is upon us. Here are some stats to get a better perspective of where some things stand in the financial markets:
- The DOW is down a little over 5% since January 1st. The S&P 500 is down a bit over 6.5%, and the NASDAQ is down roughly 8.4%.
- The 10-Year Treasury is up 4% now, around 4.328%
- Bitcoin is down 24.3% this year.
- Gold is up 5.2%. Oil is up 79.8%. The average Gasoline price is up 30%, and diesel around 40%.
Why do I mention the financial markets? Everyone reading this is invested in some way in the financial markets. Many of my clients' moods are driven by these markets. I have yet to meet someone who celebrates seeing their retirement portfolio statement drop. Everyone reacts to this stuff differently, anywhere from deep depression to complete indifference. But even the most indifferent amongst us do not enjoy losses as this often impacts the mood of all markets.
However, like most home data, we often tend to only look at shorter-term corrections and somehow forget to see the bigger picture, so here is where the three major indices stand today compared to
ONE YEAR ago:
DOW: up over 8.5%.
S&P 500: up almost 14%.
NASDAQ: up 19.9%.
Gold: up 45%
Bitcoin: down 20%
10-YEAR Treasury: up 1.95%
After extreme pricing escalations, often these periods are followed by corrections, especially when a war in the Middle East strangles a supply chain critical to most commerce globally, with pricing controlled by a global cartel. Yes, even though we produce more oil than ever and may even qualify as "energy independent", we are extremely dependent price-wise. 68-70% of US GDP is consumer spending. If consumers have to spend more on gasoline (for themselves and for the transportation of everything), they often tend to spend less elsewhere.
U.S. average hourly earnings for private employees rose by 3.8% over the past 12 months. The average American household consumes about 40-50 gallons of gas per month. That equates to anywhere between $50-$100 extra spent on personal transportation. The average tax cut per taxpayer is estimated at over $2,300 for 2026, driven by higher standard deductions and a larger child tax credit. Maybe there won't be any gains, but the above stats mixed in with elevated inflation could make these gains help offset some/most of the losses?
