Artificial intelligence euphoria is rampant, political divisions fester, crypto lunacy is rife, financial betting instead of investing is growing, credit is bubbling in private markets, inflation remains sticky, and the US is once again at the heart of a global fiscal and financial maelstrom, not to mention a 'regime change' in Venezuela. Close to a hundred years on, we have to ask, "does another 1929 crash loom"? This may be the #1 question for most economists and investors in 2026. I have bad news and good news.

First, the bad:  All the above is true and real. Everything I listen to, and everything I read, suggests we are in financial markets that in many areas appear ‘frothy’ or irrationally exuberant. Some things make sense, and others make no sense. And for some things, it may be too early to know one way or the other. Recessions are inevitable, but timing when they happen is difficult at best, and often are only clearly seen in the rearview mirror, especially with our archaic data collection systems and political influences.

The good news? Everyone seems to be talking about this, or at least the majority of rational, intelligent people, and in this lies the greatest hope of all. Awareness often fuels preventative solutions. It affords us the time and opportunity to correct course. It encourages closer scrutiny, looking under rocks for hidden surprises or aspects that are being purposefully concealed. Most importantly, it tempers the curse of all markets, arrogance. Arrogance is a form of selective blindness or deafness, the choosing to ignore realities, data, and facts.

So I remain hopeful, but as every economist says: “but it all depends”. We can choose to address this or ignore it, and this is a good moment to remind ourselves that this is a choice!