It's estimated that, based on early 2026 projections, the average tax refund in 2026 is expected to rise significantly, placing it around $3,800 - $4,000, which is approximately $700 - $1,000 higher than in 2025. While for those in larger cities this extra $700 - $1,000 may seem less meaningful, for many, this is quite a bit of money. Compare this to the Covid era where an average eligible American adult who qualified for all three federal stimulus checks received a total of $3,200. For a family of four meeting the same criteria, the total was approximately $11,400, most of it paid in 2020 and early 2021.
The stimulus payments of 2020-2021 are often cited for the massive surge in pricing that ensued. But this time is different in three key areas:
1. We are not experiencing the global supply-chain disruptions that persisted between 2020-2023.
2. OPEC has almost fully restored its oil production quotas after massive cutbacks to elevate pricing in 2020 that lasted until the end of 2025.
3. The FED's rates are not at zero or close, and chances are they won't rise, and even if they do, they won't rise nearly as sharply and quickly as they did starting in March 2022.
Will this tax-refund stimulus fuel a healthier economy and more affordability? Or will it simply cover the costs of tariffs that have been largely absorbed by corporations? Will corporations raise prices knowing there is more money floating out there, the way they did in 2022-2024, boosting profits to record setting territory?
Most importantly, will this additional capital help or hurt housing? Even with new policies enacted to boost housing production and renovation, we all know building takes years, not months, so the effects of any new, good policies will not be felt for a long time
