Not all recessions are created equal. Recently there has been a growing drumbeat predicting that the US economy might enter into a recession, (negative territory for two consecutive quarters). Few people can predict the exact timing of a recession but everyone will be right in predicting that one is coming eventually. They happen regularly and somewhat consistently through economic cycles either because of a shock to the system (Covid, banking crisis, the dot-com bust, excessive speculation and/or debt, etc) or the typical cyclical movements of markets. The US has experienced 14 recessions/depressions in the past 100 years, roughly one every 7 or so years. Australia did not experience a recession for almost 30 years until September 2020 when Covid-19 struck the global economy.
The poor, those with high debt service/highly leveraged and those who lose their jobs are the most negatively impacted by a recession. Massive job losses fuel belt-tightening amongst the unemployed, fear of spending amongst those who remain employed, and bigger strains on the social welfare nets for unemployment benefits. This can trigger bankruptcies and foreclosures. In an economy that's 70% fueled by consumer spending, the spending habits can shift quickly. It's extremely tough to secure a mortgage when unemployed or without regular income. Often governments step in to fuel/stimulate the economy via spending and/or tax cuts. But there are limits to how much any government can borrow.
However, life goes on and people have to keep spending on the basics: food, shelter, healthcare, utilities, etc. The economy does not stop, it merely slows. How far it slows is what defines the damage it inflicts. It can take years and even decades for some to fully recover - if at all - from a very deep recession or depression. Often the greatest fortunes are made during recessions as those with lots of capital have enormous buying opportunities.
Ken interprets market data, staying in constant communication and offering valuable insight that then translates into an informed decision.
Contact Us