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Recession-Obsession?

Not all recessions are created equal. Recently there has been a growing drumbeat predicting that the US economy might enter into a recession, (negative territory for two consecutive quarters). Few people can predict the exact timing of a recession but everyone will be right in predicting that one is coming eventually. They happen regularly and somewhat consistently through economic cycles either because of a shock to the system (Covid, banking crisis, the dot-com bust, excessive speculation and/or debt, etc) or the typical cyclical movements of markets. The US has experienced 14 recessions/depressions in the past 100 years, roughly one every 7 or so years. Australia did not experience a recession for almost 30 years until September 2020 when Covid-19 struck the global economy.

 

The impact of a recession is largely dependent on its depth and severity which are also difficult to predict. Like all economic cycles, there are beneficiaries:
 
  • The wealthiest individuals may be able to weather a recession better than others, as they have more capital to invest and less reliance on day-to-day income. Those with strong assets and savings are best insulated. 
  • Savers may benefit from higher interest rates, which can increase the return on their investments. Although recessions often see lowered rates to fuel economic activity. The 2020 Covid recession saw rates go to their lowest ever triggering unprecedented real estate activity.
  • Investors with deep pockets may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession or desperate sellers of assets including real estate. Right now there are massive swaths of corporate cash and billions in private equity awaiting buying opportunities. The more capital on the sidelines, the fewer the 'bargains'.

 

The poor, those with high debt service/highly leveraged and those who lose their jobs are the most negatively impacted by a recession. Massive job losses fuel belt-tightening amongst the unemployed, fear of spending amongst those who remain employed, and bigger strains on the social welfare nets for unemployment benefits. This can trigger bankruptcies and foreclosures. In an economy that's 70% fueled by consumer spending, the spending habits can shift quickly. It's extremely tough to secure a mortgage when unemployed or without regular income. Often governments step in to fuel/stimulate the economy via spending and/or tax cuts. But there are limits to how much any government can borrow.

 

However, life goes on and people have to keep spending on the basics: food, shelter, healthcare, utilities, etc. The economy does not stop, it merely slows. How far it slows is what defines the damage it inflicts. It can take years and even decades for some to fully recover - if at all - from a very deep recession or depression. Often the greatest fortunes are made during recessions as those with lots of capital have enormous buying opportunities.

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