This week's peaceful transfer of power heralded an encouraging bigger-picture message about the Covid-era crime surge that plagued the US. Many larger cities saw a crime surge starting in 2020 that saw riots, looting, organized crime spikes, shoplifting, robbery, murder throughout the US and globally. New York City had seen a sharp decline in crime over the prior two decades, and then things reversed although not nearly as badly as some politicians and those in the media proclaimed. There were 377 murders in NYC in 2024, 14 fewer than in 2023. Reported robberies were down 2.3%, burglaries were down 5.7%, grand larceny was down 5% and grand larceny auto was down 10.3% compared to 2023. Murder overall in the US was down anywhere between 12-16%, the biggest recorded decline ever (in 1996 it had dropped a record 9%). 

In San Francisco, homicides have fallen by a third. Chicago recorded its lowest number of murders since 2019. And rates of other crimes also fell. Car thefts declined by roughly 20%. While spotty at times, with some areas not faring as well as others, the overall trend is very encouraging. Crime matters to all. It matters to real estate, homes, and neighborhoods. Often those purporting to change crime prevention and policing inadvertently hurt those in the poorest areas the most.  Often the crime stats you read about in bigger cities are concentrated in poorer areas where additional, not less, crime prevention and law enforcement is needed.

Human nature does not support the concept of others getting away with crime, whether shoplifting, fare evasion or tax evasion or worse. Societies in general all want law and order. Without it there is chaos. As a real estate professional I often discuss safety, a big concern for most home buyers and renters. I know first-hand what the value is of safety and security. It's not just about a home's value, it's about quality of life. Of course there is a big difference between petty crimes and major felonies but both matter.  Some areas within the 'deadliest' cities are actually much safer than the narratives you hear.

All crime, whether white collar or blue collar costs everyone, lots. The annual cost of crime in the US is estimated to be between $4.71–$5.76 trillion, including transfers from victims to criminals. More than $10 billion is lost annually to fraud. The events of 9/11 have cost the globe several trillions since 2001. Stolen items simply add more cost to the other items others are paying for through insurance losses passed on to the consumer.