2025 has been a messy, roller coaster year but now as we enter 2026, there are several optimistic signs...

1.  Fiscal Stimulus: The consumer will have more disposable income. 2026 promises to deliver larger tax refunds to many ($50 billion-plus in total), not for all. Some may even be able to reduce how much they withhold in their paychecks.

2.  Lower Fed: Interest rates closer to neutral (down notably from a year ago), may start to show more of an impact in consumer debt, credit cards and mortgage interest rates if the bond market is not spooked.

3.  Inflation:  While inflation remains sticky, the US consumer is now more acclimated to a 3% rate of price hikes. Higher tariffs are unlikely and many that soared in 2025 have been scaled back, some notably. Politicians across the board see offering real solutions as an opportunity.

4. Wages are improving: Wages only started to catch up with inflation's impact in 2025 later in the year. The impact of this could start to be felt in 2026. Since January 2021, prices are up 23.5% while wages are up 22.6%.

5.  Geopolitical tensions may decline: Global trade agreements seem to be nearing resolution after a messy, uncertain 2025 that fueled inflation and uncertainty.

6.  Technology:  Huge investments in A.I. are bound to deliver efficiencies throughout industry, healthcare and government. This could fuel productivity and profitability which can benefit all.

7.  Regulation:  Reduced regulation, if intelligently and wisely implemented, could reduce the multiple unnecessary and costly delays that slow economic activity.

8.  Housing: We are now entering a more balanced real estate market. Many areas that experienced extreme price increases will pull back, and those that did not could see some price increases. All this, combined with lowered rates that many are accepting now as the 'new normal', could fuel increased transaction volume. At last all politicians are seeing housing as the driver of the 'affordability' issue and this should fuel all of them to propose solutions if they wish to remain in office.

9.  Midterm Elections: US midterm election years often bring increased stock market volatility before the vote, but historically show stronger-than-average returns in the year following the midterms, with market performance generally good regardless of which party controls Congress (though policy gridlock can emerge with a divided government). The election outcome can impact future fiscal policy, spending, etc.

10.  Awareness:  Nothing helps solve problems more than being aware of them and I feel most of us are aware of the big issues of our time. Many issues, policies and people have been revealed, discussed, debated. That is a very hopeful sign.